Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates.

Simulations using a Phillips curve-type relationship provide insights into the importance of demand versus supply for ...

A range of tariffs on U.S. imports has been enacted or considered recently. Trade tariffs can potentially affect price inflation for consumption and investment goods. Estimates suggest that the impact ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

Surveys of professional economic forecasters and financial market data can reveal public perceptions about the future conduct of monetary policy. Current estimates suggest that both professional ...

How much has excess demand contributed to inflation recently? Next, we use our estimates of the causal effects of tightness, or excess demand, on inflation to help understand the recent evolution of ...

Wildfires have been a concern in California for decades. The intensity of these events has increased recently, with particularly large and destructive fire seasons between 2018 and 2021. Analysis ...

The Congressional Budget Office recently raised its demographic projections for net U.S. immigration. Most of the increase in the projections came from undocumented immigrants. Updating the CBO ...

President Daly at Fortune Brainstorm Tech 2024. Summary San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly joined Fortune’s Emma Hinchliffe at Fortune Brainstorm Tech 2024 to discuss the outlook for the U.S.

Note: This data page will no longer be updated. The latest estimates of pandemic-era excess savings are as of September 2024. Past data will continue to be available on this site. Pandemic-Era Excess ...

Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises ...

The results suggest that future changes in climate will increase exposure to extreme heat for outdoor workers in the United States. The number of days above 25°C for these workers rises substantially ...